A story by Bryan O’Rourke
If one were writing the script for a sequel to the late-1920s, with a different cast of characters, new technologies, and a gym membership replacing a ticker-symbol, you’d be surprised how well the plot writes itself. In his recent book 1929, Andrew Ross Sorkin chronicles the manic boom of speculative finance, the flood of credit, the celebrity financiers, the loosening guardrails—and the crash that followed.(Penguin Random House)
What I argued four years ago in my essay “When reflecting back on the Roaring Twenties, the 2020s should be an equally interesting decade” is that we’re living through a similar energetic stretch: technology accelerating, markets forgiving, capital rushing in, and cultural change feeding existential optimism. The twist for the next 2-5 years: in the global fitness industry one of the five key trends I’m tracking is capital formation and its related symptoms and conditions. And here as we approach the mid-point of a decade with only three years until 2029, the parallels to the 1920s—and the emerging risk of a correction—are stark.
Credit, Speculation, and the Democratization of Capital
In Sorkin’s account of 1929 we see a familiar rhythm: speculation riding rails of cheap credit. The optimism of the era—the “new era” rhetoric of the 1920s—provided cover for margin loans, pools of investment capital, and a belief that the market would only go up.(Penguin Random House)
Fast-forward to today: we have generative AI, biotech dreams, and private markets open to retail via SPACs, micro-cap IPOs, private equity, private credit, and venture capital vehicles. Sorkin warns: “We’re either living through some kind of remarkable boom … or everything’s overpriced.”(New York Post)
In the fitness sector, capital is flooding in. As I predicted several years ago, consolidation is a real global trend in fitness. According to recent market reports, high-volume, low-price (HVLP) fitness concepts such as Crunch Fitness and EoS Fitness have attracted private-equity investment and are executing roll-ups at scale.(William Blair) Basic-Fit just acquired clever fit , among other transactions recently been announced. The reasoning: predictable cash flows from memberships, recurring revenue models, and expansion potential. But the quicker you expand, the deeper you lean into assumptions: sustained growth, favorable lease terms, member retention will hold.
This is capitalism in full performance mode. It’s exactly what Sorkin describes as the “human condition” of boom: ambition plus leverage plus optimism.(Penguin Random House)
M&A, Consolidation, and the Fitness Roll-Up Game
In the 1920s you had merger waves: banks, utilities, radio companies. Sorkin’s narrative shows how the institutional players gobbled up smaller ones, used credit to fuel scale, and assumed the market would absorb whatever came next.(CBS News)
Today’s fitness industry is following this playbook. Reports indicate that 2024 saw over 70 M&A transactions globally in the fitness space, and 2025 is shaping up to match or exceed that.(Lincoln International LLC) And key deals: EoS Fitness and Crunch Fitness closing huge transactions via private equity for example (Reuters).
The tail winds of macrotrends driving the demand for fitness, health, and wellness services is a big reason for this of course. What that also means is investors are betting scale matters. Bigger chains get better lease negotiations, stronger brand recognition, can absorb equipment cost pressures, stronger bargaining with suppliers. Convenient to believe you’re building a fortress. But the danger: when scale assumes growth will continue unimpeded, the structure becomes rigid, less agile—and vulnerable to systemic shocks as was witnessed with brands that in the past were purchased for steep prices and never recovered.
At the same time this is underway, returns for private equity have declined (McKinsey) while the number of PE firms in the US has expanded to over 6,100 (Prequin). Venture Capital firms and their related “Unicorns”, on the other hand, hold portfolio companies which multiple studies indicate are overvalued. In fact, research shows the average reported valuation is significantly higher than fair value, especially when considering protections for preferred shareholders. This overvaluation stems from a simplified "post-money" valuation method that overlooks the complex terms in legal filings, leading to inflated values for common shareholders and a large number of "unicorns" that may not truly be worth over $1 billion (Ulab Research).
Don't even get me started on the private credit dynamics at play in the market today, where a lack of transparency and regulation, illiquidity in the investments, and potential deteriorating underwriting standards as the market becomes more competitive pose significant economic risks.
The Speculative Cycle in Fitness and Tech
Let’s draw the full analogy. In the 1920s you had radio companies, car manufacturers, electrification—all innovation-led. But you also had margin buying, speculative pools, veiled risk. Sorkin writes about the democratization of investing: ordinary Americans bought stocks on margin, believed that wealth would only go up.(CBS News)
Today: you have the AI boom, biotech, fitness tech, digital wellness. You have VC and private equity snowballing bets into consumer wellness, into equipment, into clubs. You have gym chains marketing growth, membership expansion, international roll-out. You also have increased valuation multiples (William Blair).
In short: speculation meets scale meets optimism. The fitness industry is part tech startup, part subscription business, part real-world brick-and-mortar network. That makes it attractive—and possibly exposed.
What the Next 2-5 Years Will Look Like in Fitness Capital Markets
So what should we expect? Here are five key predictions grounded both in the historical lessons of the past and current fitness-industry signals:
A Peak in Valuations As Sorkin notes, bubbles don’t always burst in a day—but they often start with overconfidence, debt, and assumptions of infinite growth.(Business Insider) Expect fitness chains that raised capital aggressively to hit valuation ceilings where multiples may compress. Also expect further consolidations as firms seek to lower overhead costs and leverage scale to survive a downturn or take advantage of it.
Selectivity and the Darwinism of Scale Chains that relied on expansion, standardised leases and low-cost models will face margin pressure from labour inflation, real estate cost, equipment tariffs. The winners will be those with leveraged execution engines of people, automation, data intelligence, and differentiated offerings, international diversification, alternative revenue lines (recovery, digital, hybrid, and others).
Debt and Leverage Risk In 1929, leverage was the silent beast. Sorkin writes extensively about how margin debt and bank credit fueled the downfall.(Penguin Random House) In fitness, private equity deals with heavy debt burdens and aggressive roll-out plans may run into trouble if growth stalls.
Correction in M&A Momentum The recent flurry of acquisitions may ultimately slow but not for a while in my opinon. Buyers will demand clearer profitability, resilient metrics, margin stability. Deals done purely on growth potential may get renegotiated or abandoned. As the fitness market evolves, the script may shift from “buy growth” to “digest growth”.
Innovation Waves and the Outside Option One of the lessons of the 1920s: disruptive technologies accelerated change, but they also created winners and losers in a hurry. For fitness: digital platforms, hybrid models (in-club + at-home + recovery spaces), wellness ecosystems beyond strength training will win. Clubs that rest only on traditional models may find themselves vulnerable.
Why the Fitness Industry Matters in the Macro-Picture
Why zero in on fitness when the AI boom, fintech hype, biotech flash-points grab headlines? Because fitness sits at an intersection of real-world consumer spending, subscription economics, real estate/leverage and wellness culture. It’s a microcosm of the bigger capital formation story.
As one of the five key trends I am tracking, the capital markets environment maps directly to strategic decision making: should you lean into growth? Should you be cautious about debt? Where should you allocate capital? How do you hedge a potential correction?
The Moral from 1929 and the Opportunity for the Fitness Industry
Sorkin’s moral is plain: history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.(The Week) The exuberance of the late-1920s came from belief in “new era” tech and boundless credit. When that met reality, the crash followed. The fitness world today can ride this wave—but must keep one eye on the horizon.
If I were advising a strategy team in a large fitness related business: use this window of capital momentum, but build conservatively. Deploy to strengthen digital, diversify revenue, manage debt, evaluate acquisitions not just for growth but for sustainable cash flows. When the correction comes—and it will—the firms that survive will be those with discipline, intelligent leverage, diversified models, and the mindset of resilience rather than mania.
Final Word
We are likely living through the Roaring ’20s 2.0: excitement, innovation, capital rushing, new consumers, new models. But in that story lies the possibility of a crash, or at least a meaningful correction. For the fitness industry—especially where capital formation, growth, and consolidation are front and center—the next 2-5 years will separate the firms that were built for boom from those built for sustenance.
As Professor Galloway would say: “Be greedy when others are cautious, and cautious when others are greedy.” Now is the time to build wisely. What do you think Aaron Watkins Alan Leach Brian Holmes Carrie Kepple Dr. Paul Bedford Emma Barry Garrett Marshall Giovanni (Joe) Berselli Marcel Frikart Hans Muench Jesse James Leyva Monique Nadeau Allison Rand Stefan Sillner Ty Menzies Keith Lansdale Paul Wimer Christopher Hummel David V Duccini Eric Casaburi Peter Stipher Steven Schwartz Julian Barnes
About The Author Bryan K. O'Rourke
Bryan O’Rourke is the Chairman and CEO of Vedere Ventures, a global advisory and investment firm focused on fitness, wellness, and technology enterprises. Following a successful two-year tenure as CEO of Core Health & Fitness, Bryan now partners with founders, investors, and organizations worldwide to drive innovation, growth, and strategic transformation across the health and fitness ecosystem. An experienced executive, keynote speaker, and investor, he has led and advised companies around the world and is the host of the Fitness + Technology podcast. Connect with him on LinkedIn or @bryankorourke for insights on leadership, technology, business development, trends, and the evolving global fitness economy.